Minority Rule Isn't a Mandate
Stop saying "Half the country".
You hear it from pundits, politicians and angry uncles. You may even have said it yourself.
Half the country voted for this. Half the country loves Trump. Half the country are racists or liberal radicals and on and on.
Where is this coming from?
The idea that we are divided straight down the middle by political party comes from a common misconception in voting results. First, set aside all the down ballot, state and local races. The one that seems to crystalize this divide is the Presidential Election results, particularly the popular vote.
This past November, nearly 152 million people voted for President. Donald Trump was the clear winner with 49.9% of the vote, while Kamala Harris garnered 48.4%. Other candidates, including Jill Stein, Robert F Kennedy, and others account for the remaining 1.7%.
While 49.9% sounds like half the country, it isn’t. It is half the votes cast and counted. It does not represent everyone because quite simply not everyone votes. In fact, only 64% of the voting eligible population voted in 2024, down slightly from 2020.1
The number of non-voters is different than the number of registered voters. It includes the people that didn’t vote. The non-voters represented more people than either candidate. That’s right more people chose not to vote than voted for Trump or Harris. In fact, 37% of potential voters just did not participate in the Presidential election.
This is critical in understanding the landscape post-election. Less than a third of eligible Americans voted for President Elect Trump. However, the Republicans in particular want you to believe half the country are Maga Republicans. It does three things.
First, the false majority is the main talking point behind “having a mandate from the people”. A political mandate usually refers to the notion that a candidate has been elected in a landslide because the public strongly supports their policies and wants to see them enacted. That perceived mandate gives Republicans the permission to proceed at all costs with no bipartisan cooperation needed.
Second, it is tremendously demoralizing for non-Trumpers to think that half the country is MAGA. You can see the ripple effects already in the Democratic party as their favorite post-election activity has been hand wringing post-mortems. Asking why Kamala lost isn’t even the right question. The correct question is “How do we activate the non-voters to help stop the Project 2025 agenda?”. There is a massive group of folks that are completely unaware of the train bearing down on them (and us). Let’s figure out how to wake them up and motivate them.
Finally, the fallacy of having half the country as MAGA supporters does one positive thing. It causes the Republican from leadership to the rank and file to underestimate the resistance that can be mounted. We’ve seen it already. They believe their own hype and it is obvious.
Going forward it would behoove everyone from influencers to pundit to politicians to stop saying “half the country”. It is flat out wrong and encourages apathy when we need action most.
From usnews.com citing University of Florida Election Lab.